Copper Buyers Are Back And Soybeans Are Strongly Up On 1-9-11.
This year we have to be careful of disasters in the 4th quarter of 2012. We could we correct on the trade and not make money if most markets go upside-down in the fall on fundamentals and Black Swans.
Also, China drives the cotton market and they are slipping faster across the board. They buy cotton for manufacture of clothing. If clothing exports from China fade, the cotton prices will skid.
“Speculators Raise Wagers on Price Gains by Most in 17 Months For Commodities.” “Hedge funds raised their wagers on higher commodity prices by the most since July 2010 after signs of accelerating U.S. growth bolstered optimism that demand for raw materials will strengthen.”
“Money managers expanded their combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by +25% to 671,915 contracts in week ending January 3, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Bullish cotton bets rose the most since April, 2009; those on coffee doubled. Crude-oil holdings reached a 3-week high.
“Prices for metals and bulk commodities such as coal rose at least +85% of the time since 2004 when global industrial production strengthened, Macquarie Group Ltd. estimates. Almost $253 billion was added to the value of global equities last week on speculation economies will skirt a slump as Europe’s debt crisis deepens.”
“You’ve been seeing a risk-on trade across the board, not just in commodities,” said John Bailey, the founder and chief executive officer of Stamford, Connecticut-based Spruce Private Investors LLC, which advises investors holding about $3 billion of assets. “Between a calming in Europe and better-than- expected numbers in the U.S., including employment and housing, that has led to a risk-on attitude among managers.”
“Cotton for March delivery rose +0.2% to 96.01 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. at 9:42 a.m. in New York. Investors pulled $689.4 million from commodity funds in the week ended January 4, according to data from Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, which tracks money flows. Gold and precious-metals outflows totaled $193.4 million, said Brad Durham, the managing director of research. The outflows were smaller than the previous week, when investors withdrew $936 million from commodity funds, he said.” Editor: The CRB has based and is preparing for the next rally in 5-10 days. On Thursday, the USDA issued a bearish grain report.
